CS2 Trade Up Calculator

Model a trade up contract before you commit the skins: output odds, float, and expected value against what your inputs cost.

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0/10 skins filled
Prices are a snapshot of CS2 market prices from 9 November 2025, not live prices. Check current prices before you buy. Expected value is an average, and a single contract can land far above or below it.

FAQ

How does the CS2 trade-up contract work?

A trade-up contract takes 10 skins of the same rarity and returns 1 skin of the next rarity. The result comes from the collection of one of your inputs. StatTrak inputs give a StatTrak result, and StatTrak and normal skins can't be mixed. Knives and gloves can't be used as inputs.

How is the output float calculated?

Each input float is first placed inside its own skin's range: (float − min) ÷ (max − min). The 10 results are averaged, and the average is mapped into each possible result's range: min + average × (max − min). A skin at the bottom of its range counts as 0, so a capped skin like the AK-47 | Redline (0.10 to 0.70) at 0.10 helps as much as a 0.00 skin.

How are the odds calculated?

Each input gives its collection a 10% share, and that share is split evenly across the collection's skins one rarity up. With 7 inputs from a collection that has 2 possible results and 3 from a collection with 1, the odds are 35%, 35% and 30%. Valve doesn't publish the odds. This is the rule players have measured since the October 2025 update.

Why can't I calculate the odds yet?

Odds depend on which collection each skin belongs to, and our skin data doesn't include collections yet. Rather than show wrong odds, the calculator checks your floats and shows the contract's average float and input cost until that data is added.

What is the expected value?

Expected value is each possible result's price times its chance, added up. Profit is the expected value minus what the 10 inputs cost. Any single contract can land far above or below it.

Where do the prices come from?

Prices are a snapshot of CS2 market prices from 9 November 2025, not live prices. Check current prices before you buy.

Can I trade up Covert skins?

In CS2, 5 Covert skins can be traded for a knife or gloves from one of their cases. This calculator doesn't cover that contract yet.

Plan the Contract Before You Burn the Skins

A trade up is irreversible. Ten skins go in, one comes out, and the ten are gone whether or not you liked the result. That makes it one of the few things in Counter-Strike worth modelling on paper first, because the inputs are a real cost and the output is a distribution rather than a thing you chose.

This calculator takes the same ten inputs the game does and returns every skin the contract can produce, each with its own probability, its resulting float and its market price, plus the expected value of the whole contract against what you paid for the inputs.

How to Fill It In

Ten slots, one rarity. Pick your first skin and the calculator locks the rarity for the other nine, because the game will not accept a mixed contract. If you want to model a different tier, clear the first slot and the search opens back up.

Float per slot. Selecting a skin pre-fills the midpoint of its float range so you get a usable answer immediately, but the midpoint is a placeholder, not your skin. Type the real float from your inventory. Output float is driven by the average of your inputs, so this is the one field where guessing quietly changes the answer.

Collections matter more than skins. Which collections your ten inputs come from decides what the output can be, and in what proportion. Ten inputs from one collection give you a narrow, predictable set of outcomes. Spreading them across collections widens the range in both directions.

Reading the Result Honestly

A positive expected value does not mean a profitable contract. It means that if you ran the same contract many times the average would land above your input cost, and a single trade up is not many times. Most contracts return one of the cheaper outcomes, and the expected value is carried by results you will usually not get.

Two things this tool does not model: StatTrak variants, which trade at their own premium, and market movement between the moment you price your inputs and the moment you sell the output. Treat the number as a floor on how carefully to think, not a forecast.

If you would rather buy the skin outright than gamble ten of them, igitems lists Counter-Strike 2 skins and accounts from verified sellers.

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